My last trading 27 Sept 2006

GU as expected ... bearish ...not enough .at i said yesterday... only 24 pips ... waiting news for GBP today ... Nationwide House Prices m/m... :)

Last trading 26 Sept 2006

yesterday trading gbpusd ... only 36 pips .. hope gbp usd .. will bearish ... more than that

Last trading 23 Sept 2006

GU .... downtrend coz break trendline 1.2900 (3rd time) and used the logical trade the GU will bearish as usual, ... but EU ... bullish on FA analysis ( Industrial New Orders m/m) from Previous (-2.5% ) Forecast (1.0%) ACTUAL (1.8%) higher than expected ... 1.280+

Fundamental analysis

Herewith i enclosed ..that we must elert on Fundamental analysis list ... hope used it smartly ( if u can't see ym me at ammbiz405)




Yesterday FA news from Forexfactory .. all news involved USD ...down .. Advantage EURO ..but eurusd just touch 1.2720 ..

My last trading 19 Sept 2006

result yesterday .. trade to news ... only 44 pips ... still virtual .. eu ... Strengthen ..1.2730 ..

Bollinger Band Width And Trading Ranges: When To Trade And When To Fade

The market enjoys two basic trading conditions which tend to repeat on a very regular basis; range bound and trending states. As buyers and sellers establish the extreme overbought and oversold regions, these two opposing forces begin to approach one another, and a trading range develops as relative support and resistance levels begin to approach one another. This phenomenon often times takes the shape of a triangle consolidation pattern. Eventually either the buying or selling side takes control, forcing the opposition into submission as a new trend develops and as the market trades at new highs or lows. Once this trend exhausts itself and the market fails to accomplish new highs or lows, a new range will now develop.

As the market continues to cycle between trending and ranging conditions the Bollinger Bands will continue to expand and contract based on its relative states of volatility. During trending markets the Bollinger Band Width indicator tends to rise as the bands that it measures expand away from each other. On the same note, when a range bound condition ensues the Bollinger Band Width line tends to fall as the bands contract once again towards one another. Although there may not be a notional value to gauge low or high extremes of the Bollinger Band Width line, we can approximate the ultimate high and low points by simply noting recent trading activity on the chart. More importantly we should note the direction of the Width line, as it falls after visiting extreme highs, or rises after touching extreme lows.

Now the question remains, how can we use this in our day to day trading operations? Very simply, we can see the following 2-hour chart, the GBP/USD has formed and subsequently broken out of a number of triangle patterns as the Bollinger Band Width line rises and falls respectively. As a triangle develops, we may choose to go long near support and sell short near resistance, and we may continue to do so profitably until the Width line falls to an extreme low, and then reverses to the upside. On the same note, in a trending market, we may choose to buy new highs, or sell new lows until the Width line touches an extreme high, and then reverses to the downside. Although the notional value of the Width line is important to note, the current direction of this line may be more helpful in showing us the future implied state of volatility and therefore dictate the next trade in our near future. Note how each triangle finally breaks into a new trend just as the Width line reaches an extreme low and reverses to the upside (circled below). This is typically considered the inflection point where a range becomes a trend and our view on the market must change accordingly.

Before You Make a Trade: 10 Critical Questions

Before You Make a Trade: 10 Critical Questions

A "Trading Checklist" of prioritized criteria not only will help you decide when to execute a trade, but will also help you identify potential winning trades.

What kind of stuff should a trader put on a Trading Checklist? That depends on the individual trader. Each trader should have his or her own set of criteria, or rules, that helps determine a market to trade and the direction to trade it--including when to get in and out. Below are my Top 10 rules on my trading checklist.

1. Are shorter-term and longer-term charts in agreement on price trend?

I've told readers for years that this is my No. 1 trading rule. If the weekly, monthly and daily (and sometimes intra-day) bar charts are not in agreement on price trend, I'll likely pass on a trade. I'm usually a trend trader, and the "trend must be my friend" before I make a trade.

2. Is this potential trade within my financial risk tolerance?

To be a successful trader, I not only have to have winning trades, but I must survive the more numerous losing trades I am likely to encounter. If I see a potentially profitable trading "set-up," but the market is too volatile, I'll likely pass on the trade because of the potential for a big drawdown or even a margin call from my broker. An example is the energy markets a couple years ago. They were highly volatile. Certainly, there were some big moves (and trading opportunities for some) in the energies--both up and down. However, when a 75-cent, or more, daily move in crude oil is a "routine" trading session, that market is too volatile for my risk tolerance--at least when trading straight futures.

3. What is the potential risk-reward ratio of the trade?

My risk-reward ratio in a futures trade should be at least three to one on maximum profit potential. In other words, if my risk of loss is $1,000, my maximum profit potential should be at least $3,000. Anything less is not worth making the trade. Now, any eventual profit that is made may not always attain that three-to-one risk-reward ratio, but the point here is there should be the "potential" for a profit three times greater than your capital at risk in the trade.

4. Has there been a price "breakout" from a trading range?

One of my favorite trading "set-ups" is when prices have been in a trading range--between key support and resistance levels--for an extended period of time (the longer, the better). This type of trading range is also called a congestion zone, or a basing area when at historically lower price levels. If the price breaks out of a range (above the key resistance or below the key support), I like to enter the market--long on an upside breakout or short on a downside breakout. A safer method would be to make sure there is follow-through strength or weakness the next trading session--in order to avoid a false breakout. The trade-off there is that I could be missing out on some of the price move by waiting an extra trading session.

5. Is there a potentially good entry point if the trade looks good?

Entry points in trades most times should be based on some type of support or resistance levels in a market. If I see a potential set-up for a long-side trade, I will wait for the market to push up through a resistance level and begin a fledgling uptrend. Then, if I do go long, I'll set my sell stop just below a support level that's not too far below the market. And if the trend does not develop and the market turns back south, I'm stopped out for a loss that's not too painful. Another way to enter a market that is trending (preferably just beginning to trend) is to wait for a minor pullback in an uptrend or an upside correction in a downtrend. Markets don't go straight up or straight down, and there are minor corrections in a trend that offer good entry points. The key is to try to determine if it is indeed just a correction and not the end of the trend.

6. Is there a support or resistance level nearby, at which I can set a protective stop when I enter the trade?

This is my exit strategy, and is one of the most important factors in trading futures. On when to get out of a market, I have a simple, yet very effective method: Upon entering a trade, if I place a sell stop below the market if I'm long (buy stop if I'm short), I know right away approximately how much money I could lose in any given trade. I will never trade straight futures without employing stops. Neither should you. Thus, I will never be in a trade and have a losing position and not know where my exit point is going to be.

7. Do "fundamental" market factors raise any warning flags?

Those who have read my features know I base the majority of my trading decisions on technical indicators and chart analysis--and also on market psychology. However, I do not ignore fundamentals that could impact the markets I'm trading. Neither should you. There are U.S. government economic reports that sometimes have a significant impact on markets. Associations also release reports that impact futures markets. Even private analysts' estimates can move markets. I make it a priority to know, in advance, the release of any scheduled reports or forecasts that have the potential to move the market for which I'm thinking about trading. I don't like surprises when I am in the middle of a trade.

8. What do computer-generated indicators show? (RSI, DMI, Stochastics, etc.)

Some traders use the Directional Movement Indicator (DMI) as a complete trading system. Also, some traders use the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Slow Stochastics or other computer-generated technical indicators solely for determining entry and exit points. I do neither and here’s why: I consider these computer-generated technical indicators to be secondary, yet still important, trading tools. I will use these "secondary tools" to help me confirm or reject ideas that are based on my "primary tools"--which are basic chart patterns, support and resistance levels, trend lines, and fundamental analysis.

9. Do volume and open interest provide any clues?

Most veteran futures traders agree that volume and open interest are also "secondary" technical indicators that help confirm other technical signals on the charts. In other words, traders won't base their trading decisions solely on volume or open interest figures, but will instead use them in conjunction with other technical signals, or to help confirm signals. As a general rule, volume should increase as a trend develops. In an uptrend, volume should be heavier on up-days and lighter on down-days within the trend. In a downtrend, volume should be heavier on down-days and lighter on up-days. Changes in open interest also can be used to help confirm other technical signals. Open interest can help the trader gauge how much new money is flowing into a market, or if money is flowing out of a market. This is helpful when looking at a trending market. Another general trading rule is that if volume and open interest are increasing, then the trend will probably continue in its present direction--either up or down. And if volume and open interest are declining, this can be interpreted as a warning signal that the current trend may be about to end.

10. What is the prevailing general opinion of the market? (Possible contrary thinking.)

When I was working on the trading floors of the major futures exchanges, traders would many times "fade" (or trade against) the featured articles on commodities in the major newspapers, such as the Wall Street Journal. They figured that if the general financial press had picked up on a market (such as a drought driving grain prices higher), then that uptrend must be about over. Contrary opinion in the trading business is defined as going (trading) against the popular or most widely held opinions in the marketplace. This notion of "going against the grain" of popular market opinion is difficult to undertake, especially when there is a steady drumbeat of fundamental information that seems to corroborate the popular opinion. If you've read books on trading markets, most will tell you to have a trading plan and stick with it throughout the trade. A main reason for this trading tenet is to keep you from being swayed or influenced by the opinions of others while you are in the middle of a trade. Popular opinion is many times not the right opinion when it comes to market direction.

Discipline, Mental Skills and the Psychology of Trading

Discipline, Mental Skills and the Psychology of Trading

Hi there ...new article that i got from best resources .. the experience in trading ..... hope u enjoy it. :)

Are you searching for answers to become a master trader? Or are you still trying to be a profitable trader? Trading is not easy as most people think, why is that out all those who try, over 90% fail?

My trading experience expands 2 decades, and also being a trading mentor I have also interviewed many traders, many of them have struggled to earn any profits after so many years of trading and yet they continue to fund their trading accounts.

Most traders do not realize that successful trading comes from a belief and confidence within oneself. It's an attitude! It's thinking like a winner. It's trading to win, not trading to lose. The fact is, trading, as all of you should know, is a zero sum game. You either are a winner or a loser. Why does a trader let his loss accumulate? Why does a trader snatch a profit and not let it run? When you are wrong, why don’t you admit it? All these answers come from within. It's trading psychology not technical knowledge. For anyone preparing a trading plan, the first thing you must do is to get to know yourself. This may seem silly, but 95% of trading plans that I have seen do not cover this important aspect.

Then the question arises, "why a few win and most don't?"

First, think about this. Every trader has access to the same tools, the same research, the same charts, the same quotes, the same proven trading methods, etc. So, why is it that, with everybody having access to the same stuff, only a few make consistent profits over time?

Well, it’s clear that the common denominator is the PERSON. Yes, YOU!

So, if somebody asked me to list the BIG THREE mental / emotional characteristics that define the majority of successful FOREX traders, I would list:

1. Discipline & Passion

2. Confidence & Courage

3. Patience & Persistence

One could have a great trading methodology and a system, but weak on psychology is likely to fail. Whereas someone with a mediocre trading system, but strong discipline with mental & psychology skills is likely to be on a winning side. One trader I recently interviewed has no clue about Macd, or stochastics or RSIs or Elliott Wave. He has a very simple system of trading the breakout on triangles and trendlines – that’s all he does, and consistently produces over 700 pips profit trading Forex.

He has a simple system, a set of rules, sets achievable and realistic goals – and all he does is follow these simple rules! – No rocket science. Recently one trader told me “I'd read very good books by Elder, Mark Douglas, Toni Turner, Candlestick course by Nison, Edwin Lefevre etc. however, after reading those I was still trying to find the 'secret' to trading successfully and wasnot sure about mysystem. I realised that the 'secret' to successful trading is that there is no secret! I've also developed a system from very effective strategies that suits my psychology and mystyle, and more importantly I have devised a Trading Plan”

DISCIPLINE & PASSION:

Discipline - Majority of traders are not disciplined in their approach, else they would not be failing. These failed traders simply hate to hear the word Discipline! As Jack Schwager points out in his book, 'The New Market Wizards', "Discipline was probably the most frequent word used by the exceptional traders that I interviewed. Often it was mentioned in an almost apologetic tone: 'I know you've heard this a million times before, but believe me, it's really important'."

Discipline allows you to more effectively plan your work (trades) and work (trade) your plan. Discipline – “Habit of Obedience” – yes the keyword being habit, i.e. have a Trading Plan and make a habit of following it. The golden rule should be No Signal – No Trade.

Passion - We may spend a third of our life working, so you deserve to feel fulfilled in what you do, you do it because you love to do it! – Yes the monetary rewards are the by-product of your success in doing things you love to do.

How can you be naturally successful at something, continue to fine-tune your trading skills, seek the services of a mentor, and stomach the ups and downs of the business and if you don't know WHY you're doing it? As Michael Jordan once said, "If you have a love for the game, your talent will eventually catch up to you." So if you do not have the love for trading, will you succeed?

To sum-up this Mental skill set PAIR (Discipline / Passion): You must be disciplined AND remain emotionally detached from the market.

CONFIDENCE & COURAGE:

On of the basic traits of successful traders is that they believe in themselves first. They have the confidence and courage to stick with their plan, not stray from their rules, go against the crowd if need be, and see the end result (the Big Picture) in their mind.

What does every successful TRADER have in common? From the book, 'Poker, Sex and Dying': "Poker is an explosive game combining money, ego, and emotions. It is not enough to know, have information, and insight regarding your opponent (the markets), you must know of yourself." Therefore within your trading plan, you must have a section about YOU – get to know yourself

In the early days of my trading career, I had faced many a situation where I "knew" exactly where the price was going, had a trading plan, but failed to follow it. Of course, greed, fear, and our other emotions stood in our way. When you let this happen to you...all your knowledge, planning and information quickly becomes useless.

In other words, no matter how good you are at analysing the market, if you don't have confidence, all you're really doing is repeatedly creating experiences to which you will respond with similar frustration and anxiety.

How do you achieve confidence? You gather knowledge, practice discipline, and grow as a person. The more you learn about the markets, your approach to trading the markets and, more importantly, yourself...the more effective you become as a trader. The more effective you become, the less fearful you are. Confidence is the lack of fear. When you are confident, you can win.

PATIENCE and PERSISTENCE:

In this day and age of instant gratification, people want thrills without risks, wine without alcohol, more money without effort, beer without belly and yes, a profitable trade without doing homework.

The market knows better than you and I, don't rush to trade, you have to have patience and wait for the right signal – A golden rule No Signal – No Trade.

The successful trader realizes that patience pays! Every successful trader has a special talent for 'watching and waiting' and waits until trading behaviour has dictated when to enter the market. The prudent FOREX trader specifically applies patience to his/her advantage by:

Listening To The Market. The market is continually donating valuable trading information, and you must get into the proper frame of mind where you are in reality taking your orders from the action of the market itself or the signals your trading system is sending you. Your judgment will become poorer from the very time that you decide you know more about the market than the market itself is telling you, and you throw patience aside and give in to fear or hope.

Sitting On The Sidelines While Waiting For a Trend to Develop. It has often been said that looking at one's screen during the trading day is like sitting in front of a slot machine and trying to resist gambling. Successful traders in the FOREX have learned that they cannot buck the major price trend of the individual currency-pair they are trading. You still don't want to let impatience cause you to trade against the trend.

While patience is important not only in waiting for the right trades, it's also important in staying with the trades that are working. You must know how to wait patiently for the optimal time to sell. Selling a winner too early is not going to allow your account balance to increase exponentially at an ideal rate. So, this is where the 'persistence' mental factor comes in as well. You can be 'patient' until the cows come home but if you don't persistently control your impulses and don't persistently follow your exit rules, and then your profits won't balance out losses overt time.

"Be patient with winning trades; be enormously impatient with losing trades. Remember, it is quite possible to make large sums trading/investing if we are "right" only 30% of the time, as long as our losses are small and our profits are large." - Dennis Gartman

Success in trading depends on education to learn the critical technical analysis, trading techniques, sound money management habits, and how to control your emotions. The education

involves many stages, individual self-study, group lessons, classroom study, and constant practice. This takes you to a near professional level. Then, they add one more dimension, individual mentoring and coaching to rise to the absolute top and remain there over their professional career.

Do you really need a mentor or a coach? The best golfer in the world thinks so! Tiger Woods pays his coach over 1 million dollars per year! Yet he makes over 50 million dollars per year. In fact, all professional athletes have coaches to help make them better. The reason you choose to spend the money on coaching is to shorten that learning curve over which all traders have to travel, while increasing your levels of success; it is a cost of doing business. Remember if you are or want to be a professional trader you are in a business.

Today’s traders are lucky in that, they have many facilities and resources available. When I started trading 2 decades ago, there were very few resources available to a retail trader, few had heard of a Trading Coach or a mentor, no Internet and indeed no public boards such as T2W – trading was lonely.

After 10 years of trading, overall I was a loser. This period included major Stockmarket crashes, such as the 87 crash, and the 91 Gulf war. Trading was tough. My trading took to a new level, when I went to the Trading Expo in USA and was introduced to a Trading Coach.

I sought the services of a coach; the main focus of my coach was Psychology, an area that I had totally ignored all these years. My life as a trader was to change forever and I have not looked back, trading has become so easy and I am able to pick an iron-clad trade with great ease.

As I have often said, ignore the trend at your own peril; today I add if you ignore the psychology of trading you may not succeed.

FOREX ONLINE

“How You Can Earn $50 to $500 A Day Currency Trading
From The Comfort of Your Own Home!”

Did you know that more and more business opportunity seekers worldwide are discovering the powerful profit potential of Foreign Exchange trading? In this business, there are no employees to hire, no advertising, no products to stock,
no downlines to fill--just you, an Internet connection and a computer. That's all you need to make money on the worlds largest market. If you are searching for .


Our purpose is to empower, mentor and train currency traders all around the world who would like to Day Trade Forex as their main source of income. For those looking for a significant part-time income, we believe Currency Trading is
the vehicle to use. Our aim is to assist you to:

1. Stay Disciplined—To learn how to manage risk effectively.
2. Keep Objective—To trade in a non-emotional, intelligent way.
3. Trade with Confidence—To know exactly when to trade.
4. Become Systematic—To generate your own Forex buy/sell signals.

The goal is to earn $50 to $500 per trade and minimize losses on losing trades using technical indicators on charts, which I will explain later on in this course. The potential to profit is there for those who trade this system. The great thing about Forex trading is that you can test this system for FREE on a demo account using virtual money, before you risk one penny on actual trades. You will be able to join my team of traders as you advance step-by-step through this guide. We will begin by explaining what Forex is and all the benefits of trading currencies.

WHAT IS FOREX
The Foreign Exchange, also referred to as the "Forex" or "Spot FX" market, is the largest financial market in the world, with over $1.2 trillion changing hands every single day. If you compare that to the $25 billion a day volume that the New York Stock Exchange trades, you see how giant the Foreign Exchange really is. In fact it is three times larger than all of the US Equity and Treasury markets combined!

What is traded on the Foreign Exchange? The answer is money. Forex trading is where the currency of one nation is traded for that of another. Therefore, Forex trading is always traded in pairs. The most commonly traded currency pairs are traded against the US Dollar (USD). They are called ‘the Majors'. The major currency pairs are the Euro Dollar (EUR/USD); the British Pound (GBP/USD); the Japanese Yen (USD/JPY); and the Swiss Franc (USD/CHF).

The notable ‘commodity’ currency pairs that trade are the Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) and the Australian Dollar AUD/USD. Because there is not a central exchange for the Forex market, these pairs and their crosses are traded over the telephone and online through a global network of banks, multinational corporations, importers and exporters, brokers and currency traders.
Traditionally, currency trading has been a 'professionals only' market available exclusively to banks and large institutions, however, because of the rise of the new E-economy, online Forex trading firms are now able to offer trading accounts to retail' traders like you and I. Now almost anyone with a computer and an Internet connection can trade currencies just like the world's largest banks do. There are now over 6 million trading accounts worldwide up from 1.7 million in 1997.

BENEFITS OF FOREX TRADING
There are many benefits and advantages to trading Forex. Here are just a few reasons why so many people are choosing this market as a business opportunity:

1.LEVERAGE: In Forex trading, a small margin deposit can control a much larger total contract value. Leverage gives the rader the ability to make extraordinary profits and at the same time keep risk capital to a minimum. Some Forex firms offer 200 to 1 leverage, which means that a $50 dollar margin deposit would enable a trader to buy or sell $10,000 worth of rrencies. Similarly, with $500 dollars, one could trade with $100,000 dollars and so on.

2.LIQUIDITY: Because the Forex Market is so large, it is also extremely liquid. This means that with a click of a mouse you can instantaneously buy and sell at will. You are never 'stuck' in a trade. You can even set the online trading platform to automatically close your position at your desired profit level (limit order), and/or close a trade if a trade is going against you (stop order).

3.PROFIT IN BOTH 'RISING' AND 'FALLING' MARKETS: On the stock markets, you can only make money if shares are rising, but in economic recession and falling 'bear' markets, there is little chance of making big money. Forex is different. One of the most exciting advantages of FX trading is the ability to generate profits whether a currency pair is 'up' or 'down'. A trader can profit by taking a 'long' position, (buying the currency pair at one price and selling it later at a higher price), or a 'short' position, (selling the currency pair and buying it back at a lower price). For example, if you think the US dollar will increase in value vs. the Japanese Yen then you will buy Dollars and sell Yen (go long). If you think the Yen will increase in value gainst the Dollar then you will sell Dollars and buy yen (go short). As long as the trader picks the right direction, a potential for profit always exists. 4. 24HRS: From Sunday evening to Friday Afternoon EST the Forex market never sleeps. This is very desirable for those who want to trade on a part-time basis, because you can choose when you want to trade--morning, noon or night.

5. FREE 'DEMO' ACCOUNTS, NEWS, CHARTS AND ANALYSIS: Most Online Forex firms offer free 'Demo' accounts to practice trading, along with breaking Forex news and charting services. These are very valuable resources for traders who would like to hone their trading skills with 'virtual' money before opening a live trading account.

6.'MINI' TRADING: One might think that getting started as a currency trader would cost a lot of money. The fact is, it doesn't. Online Forex Firms now offer 'mini' trading accounts with a minimum account deposit of only $200-$500 with no ommission trading. This makes Forex much more accessible to the average individual, without large, start-up capital.